Monday, May 26, 2008

The Usefulness of Libraries

Robert Darton, Director of the University Library at Harvard, has a very interesting piece in the June 12th issue of the NY Review of Books (which is not the New York Times Book Review, in case you were wondering). He begins with an overview of the technological evolution of books (written language circa 4000 b.c.e., alphabetic script 1000 b.c.e., scrolls 0 b.c.e., the codex, or bound, flip page book 3 century c.e., movable type in China around year 1000, metallic movable type in Korea, two centuries later, Gutenburg the 1450's). Eventually he uses this timeline to argue for the inherent instability of texts and the lasting value of books. The value of books lay in the format's many variations: size and material reflect economic and social information, variant texts indicate many authorial and editorial intentions and accidents. All of this is valuable to a historian.

Needless to say, since 1969 and the early experiments to link up computers, the pace of change in the world of texts has been mind boggling. As January, 2005, there were 60 million blogs, for instance. By July, 70 million. Google is now in the mix, striking deals with Oxford, the NYC public library, Michigan, Stanford, and Harvard to digitize their collections.

Much has been written about a "post-literate" or "hyper-literate" generation, a cohort largely innocent of books. Amongst academics and college students, the web has displaced much of the library's traditional function: a sanctum and a place where you could find information available no where else. Darnton argues that this is still the case and that crucial information will be lost not by the act of digitizing texts, but rather by the growing belief that an authoritative text is online and that the search, as it were, can end there.

He presents several points:

1) Google can not possibly put all texts, and their variants online. Someone will choose the "true" text; someone will be making the decision to leave out thousands of chapbooks, DIY's, trade paperbacks, etc.

2) 60 percent of the books being currently digitized in only one of the above libraries. This is a mere fraction of what is available in research libraries across the U.S. Even if Google manages to digitze 90 per cent of this vast holding, many millions of books may vanish. And if we neglect our libraries because we think everything is on Google, they will vanish.

3) Copyrights are a huge problem. They extend 70 years past the lifetime of the author. This means hundreds of millions of items of text can only be read a few lines at a time, the standard "fair use" asserted by Google.

4) Companies vanish. Google will too. Then what?

5) Human error, computer error. Errors compounding errors.

6) Hardware and software become obsolete. This happens really fast, doesn't it?

7) Since Google plans to digitize many versions of the same book, how will they be prioritized? And how would anyone know which versions have been left out? A quote from the article: "Google employs hundreds, of not thousands, of engineers but, as far as I know, not a single bibliographer."

8) The size and texture of a book cannot be digitized. The article is worth reading for the details here.

As someone who loves the smell of binders glue and old bookshops, and considers human language the ultimate moving target, count me as a Darntonian. I still recall the gasp that escaped me when I stumbled across James Joyce's so-called "Buffalo Notebooks" at the BC library- these are the fascimiles of his notes for Finnegan's Wake- it was like when one first apprehends the true dimensions of an iceberg.

Ten years ago I would have asserted that the record album would remain a vital format. I don't think so anymore. The album- LP, CD, or MP3- is crumbling back into individual songs. A book, however, holds unique information about production in a way that the very standardized music formats of the past and present never have. Maybe the book will last...or at least have a decline in proportion to it longevity. Text maybe unstable, but ink on paper is far less so.


Music

I found this surprising: of the 10 best selling albums in the U.S. of all time, only two are greatest hits collections. I still find the numbers staggering. Remind me again how the music industry manages to lose money every year? Oh, yeah. I remember now. They didn't see the internet coming.

Best Selling Albums (U.S.)
Best Selling Albums (worldwide)

Another interesting tidbit: Thriller, of course, stands alone in worldwide sales. But the next tier of sales has on it three albums easy to guess: Saturday Night Fever (previous to Thriller, the best selling album of all time), The Eagles Greatest Hits (ugh!), Dark Side of the Moon (some of the initial profits from the LP went to financing Monty Python and the Holy Grail, also the longest charting album of all time) and finally...AC/DC's Back in Black. This last one surprised me.

I would love to see the a distribution of sales figures across the globe. How does AC/DC do in West Africa, or Shanghai?

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Mindfulness over at Wikipedia

Over at the ever helpful Wikipedia, is their CTER section. It stands for Curriculum, Technology, and Educational Reform and is sponsored by the Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Here is their mindfulness entry.

Not very good or interesting, I would say. Unlike many entries in Wikipedia that I know something about, this seems downright impoverished- not as bad as, say, Conservapedia's entry on snakes but thin, thin, thin. Other entries seem quite good, so it looks as if we have some work to do.

Crosspost: Kevin Drum


Over the past couple of decades the wage premium for getting a college degree has gone up dramatically. In 1973 a typical college grad earned 30% more than a high school graduate. Today a college grad earns something like 90% more.

Standard economic theory predicts that this should lead to way more people getting college degrees, but that hasn't happened. Altonji, Bharadwaj and Lange report that, when various socioeconomic factors are held constant, "the supply response to the increase in skill premium between cohorts was small: about 1% on average and about 1.5% at the median." In other words, kids aren't bothering to increase their skills very much even though the reward for doing so has skyrocketed.

Why? Brad DeLong proposes that part of the answer may be the surging cost of college, which not only makes the return on a bachelor's degree lower than it would be otherwise, but probably makes it seem even lower than it really is to teenagers with short time horizons. He's also got some other ideas that he muses about here.

But I want to toss out another possibility that's been tickling my brain for a while. On the right is an EPI chart that shows declining wages for college grads over the past seven years. Ezra Klein comments:

As an economist told me a year or two back, "there's never been a worse time to be a college graduate. But there's never been a worse time not to be a college graduate." Your wages may be higher than those of less educated cohorts, but they're stagnant nevertheless.

Right. And maybe that's the problem. When I say that the premium for getting a college degree used to be 30% and now it's 90%, what do I mean? One possibility is something like this:

  • 1973: high school grad makes $42K, college grad makes $55K.

  • 2006: high school grad makes $42K, college grad makes $80K.

This probably would motivate more kids to get college degrees. But that's not what actually happened. Here's what actually happened for male workers (all figures adjusted for inflation):

  • 1973: high school grad makes $42K, college grad makes $55K.

  • 2006: high school grad makes $31K, college grad makes $61K.

The skill premium hasn't gone up because a college degree is way more lucrative than in the past. In fact, it's only slightly more lucrative over the long term and completely stagnant among recent grads. Rather, the skill premium has gone up because the value of a high school degree has cratered.

So here's my thought: even though the two scenarios above are (roughly) economically equivalent, they might not be psychically equivalent. If the value of a college degree had gone way up, that really might prompt more kids on the margin to study harder and go to college. Not only would that higher value be fairly obvious since it would get a lot of attention, but the prospect of doing better is highly motivating.

But does the declining value of a high school degee motivate them in the same way? I doubt it, even though mathematically the effect is the same. For starters, many teenagers may not really understand the hard reality of the trend in non-college wages, and in any case a slow but steady decline simply doesn't motivate people the same way as dangling a reward in front of them does. Instead of making them try harder, it tends to make them feel helpless and angry.

Am I explaining myself adequately here? I'm not sure. But it seems to me that there are lots of cases where real-life behavioral responses depend not merely on monetary differences, but on the direction and reason for those differences. Perhaps if you want more kids to go to college, you need to reward them for going to college, not merely punish them for not going.